A Snapshot of Monthly Housing Indicators
Updated August 26, 2010

Pending Home Sales Index
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, declined 2.6 percent to 75.7 based on contracts signed in June from an upwardly revised level of 77.7 in May, and is 18.6 percent below June 2009 when it was 93.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. Pending home sales in the South rose 3.7 percent to an index of 85.8, but are 13.3 percent below June 2009.

Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain. Existing home sales dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.
    Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.
    A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.  Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million. The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago. In the South, existing-home sales dropped 22.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.54 million in July and are 19.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $156,300, down 3.3 percent from July 2009.

New-Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in July 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000. This is 12.4 percent below the revised June rate of 315,000 and is 32.4 percent below the July 2009 estimate of 408,000. (Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development)

Housing Starts & Completions
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7 percent above the revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0 percent below the July 2009 rate of 587,000.

Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 432,000; this is 4.2 percent below the revised June figure of 451,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 95,000.

   Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000. This is 32.8 percent below the revised June estimate of 874,000 and is 25.4 percent below the July 2009 rate of 787,000. Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 490,000; this is 27.5 percent below the revised June rate of  676,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 91,000. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Housing Affordability
The affordability index was 158.9 for the U.S. and 161.7 in the South for June. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income; tracking began in 1970. 

Mortgage Rates
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.42% for week ending August 19.

Employment
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent. Federal government employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000. (Source: Dept. of Labor Statistics)

Other Indicators
GDP - The 3.2% rise in GDP (annualized) in the first quarter confirms that the U.S. economy continues to recover but the growth path ahead will remain bumpy. While growth is less than half of the robust 5.6% pace in the last quarter of 2009, the underlying dynamic is actually healthier and better balanced: More of the rise in GDP came from domestic demand and less from an inventory correction. Still, the strength and durability of this recovery remain in question, as the economy sails into strong headwinds over the next few quarters. The boost from the fiscal stimulus is fading. Households remain heavily in debt and residential investment showed a large downturn. (Source: WSJ – 4/30/2010)

Consumer Confidence – 50.4, down from 54.3 in June 

Consumer Price Index – Up 1.2% in July
Producer Price Index - Up .2% in June
Retail Sales – Down .4% in June

Mortgage Purchase Application Index (Week ending August 6) – Up 0.6%

Source: National Association of REALTORS®, unless otherwise indicated.